Posts Tagged ‘AIG’

Consumer Debt

July 7, 2009

Get used to this headline.  U.S. consumers fall behind on loans at record pace

According to the story Soaring U.S. unemployment and a shrinking economy drove delinquencies on credit card debt and home equity loans to all-time highs in the first quarter as a record number of cash-strapped consumers fell behind on their bills.

Delinquencies on the value of all card debt soared to a record 6.60 percent from 5.52 percent in the fourth quarter as more cardholders relied on plastic to meet day-to-day expenses, the American Bankers Association said.

Late payments on home equity loans rose to 3.52 percent from 3.03 percent, and on home equity lines of credit climbed to 1.89 percent from 1.46 percent.

The wasted trillions in the various stimulus and bailout packages are simply dragging this out in my opinion.  And today there’s talk that a second stimulus package is needed – are they freaking nuts?  If BoA and Citi and AIG and GM and Chrysler and (insert bailout recipient here) had been allowed to fail, other – solid – companies would be snapping up their assets at fire sale prices today.  And investors in those badly run companies would lose their money.  That’s the way it’s supposed to work.

Instead we’re taking money from smart investors and companies (via taxes) and propping up the bad ones.  And somehow most people – and economists – think this is a good idea.

News flash – most people and economists are simply partisan hacks, saying whatever they think will advance their political agenda.  And they’re wrong.

gk

The Goldman Sachs Conspiracy

April 21, 2009

This MarketWatch story is stretching to find something that I don’t think is there.  But it makes for a good read, and it does provide evidence to show that Goldman Sachs is way too influential in our government.  Here’s a taste….

He (“Hank the Hammer” Paulson) got $38 million his last year as CEO in 2006 before becoming Treasury Secretary.

Then during the market meltdown six months ago the $700 million personal fortune he built at Goldman was threatened by Goldman’s huge $20 billion derivatives exposure at AIG: Suddenly his responsibilities at Treasury merged with a strong self-interest in protecting his personal fortune. AIG was “saved.”

There’s a lot more here – some of which I talked about in a previous post – but read it for yourself.

gk

Capitalism without balls

March 20, 2009

This is a hilarious article – with a serious message – from Bill Bonner of The Daily Reckoning.  I received it in their daily email, but I cannot find it on the Daily Reckoning site right now.  I’ll post a link to the article if I find it later.

Mr. Bonner –  I’m going to post a copy of the the article here.  Please let me know if you’d prefer if I excerpted it – which I’d do now if I could find a link to the full article.  🙂

Enjoy the article – it’s Bill Bonner at his sarcastic best!

gk

Yes We Can’t!
By Bill Bonner
Paris, France

Free market capitalism is the “god that failed,” writes Martin Wolf. Thus does Financial Times lead off a feeble chorus of lament in its “Future of Capitalism” series. What do we do now? is the question. Can capitalism be tamed? Can it be harnessed? “Yes we can!” says America’s president.

Richard Layard from the London School of Economics, offered a way forward:

“We should stop the worship of money and create a more human society,” he writes. “Happiness has not risen since the 1950s in the US or Britain,” he points out, despite big increases in wealth. “Modern happiness research can help find answers,” he believes.

“Old fashioned socialist planning is the only coherent alternative to a collapsing capitalist economy,” an alert FT reader added.

Given the depth of these insights, we decided not to dive into this discussion headfirst. Instead, we will simply mock the swimmers from the bank. Brazil’s president, Lula da Silva, for example, could only come up with a campaign slogan: “The future of human beings is what really matters.” But who can blame them? They want a capitalism that makes people happy…fairer, gentler, greener… they want to reform it…to housebreak it…to cut its balls off so they can safely put it on a leash and introduce it to their daughters.

But they miss the point of it altogether: we can’t reform capitalism; it reforms us. Capitalism punishes mistakes and rewards virtue (or good luck) – not necessarily quickly or gently…but roughly and imperfectly, like a hanging judge in a frontier town. On paper, of course, we can do better. Imagine a world where public employees are saints and geniuses who do such a swell job of allocating capital we want for nothing. But then, when we get a chance to see them in action, we find that they are bigger rascals than the capitalists themselves.

This week, under pressure from its new proprietor – the U.S. government – AIG released a list showing who had gotten more than $100 billion of its bailout money. At the top of the list of recipients was a familiar name – Goldman Sachs. In a truly astonishing co-incidence, Goldman is the firm that had been run by the very person who headed up the AIG rescue – former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson. And what serendipity! Lloyd Bankfein – Goldman’s top man now – was actually in the room with the feds when the AIG rescue plan was put together.

“…we can’t reform capitalism; it reforms us. Capitalism punishes mistakes and rewards virtue (or good luck) – not necessarily quickly or gently…but roughly and imperfectly…”

In the room; in the deal. But the big scalawags ducked out of the press almost immediately. Instead, the headlines focused on the small fry. AIG paid bonuses of $450 million – some charged it was $1 billion – to its executives. These guys shouldn’t get bonuses, came the popular outcry; they should get a firing squad.

You’ll recall the story. The insurance giant AIG lost money on a series of gambles. For example, it gambled that it could insure the mortgage payments of people who couldn’t afford to buy a house. During the bubble years, people bought houses at outrageous prices. They could borrow 80% of the purchase price from government-backed debt mongers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Buyers were supposed to put up the other 20% themselves, giving lenders a margin of safety in case the transactions didn’t work out as planned. But, if an insurance company would guarantee the other 20%, Fannie could cover 100% of this “enhanced” mortgage loan. AIG found that insuring this part of the loan was profitable – as long as nobody asked questions. But then the market price for the collateral dropped – by as much as 50% in some areas. Suddenly, people were walking away from their houses. Defaults on these “enhanced” loans ran at 5 times the rates on normal Fannie-backed mortgages.

An ordinary person would look at these facts and pronounce the same judgment as the capitalist market: AIG and Fannie both deserve to go broke. But give him enough higher education in the economics department, or a job in government, and the fool rushes in –with someone else’s money.

In the theory of bailouts, an ailing firm is given a helping hand when it needs it. This gives it time to get back on its feet, and prevents it from dragging down its employees, lenders, investors and counterparties. But what actually happens is much simpler. Money is goes from the pocket of the person who earned it…to the pocket of someone who didn’t…from the innocent bystander to the fellow who caused the accident. Capitalism takes money away from erring capitalists; the capitalism improvers give it back to them.

And who decides who gets the loot? Ah…as soon as you hold them up to the light, the angels’ wings fall off. By and large, these are the same cherubim and seraphim – such as Hank Paulson – who were supposed to be leading…regulating…and controlling capitalism when it ran into a ditch. Not a single one raised a warning. Instead, they whooped for the free market and passed the whiskey bottle to the driver! And now, thanks to their bailouts, AIG continues writing insurance against mortgage loans. Seventy-three AIG executives continue getting $1 million bonuses. A long line of reckless counterparties goes unpunished. And Hank Paulson offers advice to Financial Times readers on how to make capitalism work better.

But that is always the problem with improving capitalism…even in the slapstick American way. The reformers promise a ‘new deal,’ but they’ve always got an ace up their sleeve somewhere.

Enjoy your weekend,

Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning

100% tax on AIG bonuses?

March 18, 2009

It’s probably the understatement of the decade to say that I’m no fan of bailouts, but the proposal to tax 100% of the bonuses at AIG because they’re using our money is ridiculous.

Even though Bush trampled all over it, we have this document called the Constitution which limits what the government is allowed to do.  The Constitution allows amendments, and one of them is the 14th Amendment.  In part it says:

No state shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any state deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.

In other words, what’s good for the goose is good for the gander.  Laws need to apply equally to everyone or they’re invalid.  At least that’s the theory….

We’ve seen hundreds of examples where that’s been ignored – farm bills, auto regulations, welfare, tax breaks etc. – but that doesn’t make it right.  Passing a law that applies to AIG (or any other subset of citizens) to tax certain wages at 100% is blatantly unconstitutional.

That won’t stop it from passing, but it should.  That should tell you just how much our elected Representatives, Senators, and the President know about the constitution.  And it should show you why we need to vote them out.  All of them.

Go back to a citizen legislature and we’d all be better off.

gk

Why AIG blew up

March 1, 2009

The NY Times has a good article today which examines why we’re stuck paying hundreds of billions in bailouts to AIG.  The article is titled Propping Up a House of Cards.

It’s a good article, and it does a good job of explaining what happened, but I think it draws the wrong conclusion.  The NY Times says we need to continue the bailout of AIG regardless of the cost.  I say we should simply let them fail and let the house of cards collapse.

No, the result won’t be pretty, but it will be over. A lot of large banks will go under, both here and in Europe, but some will be left.  And the trillions of dollars of losses will have been taken by the people who invested in AIG and the banks that relied on them – and that’s the way it should be.

gk

Another Bailout for AIG

February 24, 2009

Looks like $150 billion wasn’t enough to stop the bleeding at AIG – we’re getting ready to give them more money. 

According to Reuters AIG is asking for more aid and bracing for a fourth-quarter loss of roughly $60 billion, a source familiar with the matter said. It would be the biggest loss in a quarter in corporate history.

The $60 billion would exceed Time Warner’s $54 billion single-quarter loss in 2002 and dwarf the $24.5 billion loss AIG posted in the third quarter, when the government increased its rescue package for the insurer to about $150 billion.

By contrast, two analysts polled by Reuters Estimates have forecast on average a net loss of $5.46 billion.

The latest round of talks with the government include the possibility of additional funds for the insurer and trading debt for equity, another source said on Monday.

How many billions more are we going to dump into these financial cesspools?  Why not simply let them go broke?  That’s what needs to happen in order to get through this mess – the bad debt needs to be accounted for and written off. 

This is just giving the wino another drink.

gk